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On April 17, 2025, 12:37:24 PM UTC, Gravatar Andreas Jahn:
  • Updated description of resource Spectrum File in Malawi HIV Estimates 2025 from

    Priliminary Malawi 2025 AIM file with Shiny90 not updated, uncertainty not done and quarter 4 data is extraporated
    to
    Updated all program data with complete 2024 outputs. ART program data 2021-2024 were reduced by -2.5%, -4.9%, -5.7% and -7.0% in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 to adjust for systematic overreporting that was discovered in 2023 and corroborated during a targeted DQA at a sample of 54 facilities in Aug 2024. The reduction was based on the difference between ARV actually issued to the clinic rooms at all facilities vs. estimated consumption based on the reported number of patients on ART. Note: some facilities in Blantyre with the most significant suspected overreporting already started to drop "ghost patients" in Q3 and Q4 2024. This is consistent with the declining ART reporting bias in Blantyre estimated by the 2025 Naomi model. Replaced VLS program data 2019-2024 with: Total routine VL samples collected (DBS and plasma) for the denominator # of patients with VL<1000 based on extrapolated VLS from ADJUSTED VLS rates using the Kuzama pa Kalondo model for the numerator. The model was developed in 2024/25 to remove the DBS bias and bias from over/underrepresentation of age/sex and district specific VL testing rates. For 2012-2018: used crude LIMS data (all routine VL results from plasma and DBS samples) as Kuzama analysis was not possible for these earlier years due to missing data elements. Changed Advanced options > Child / Adult transition parameters from "East Africa" to "Southern Africa" pattern (following suggestion from Eleanor, UNAIDS). This results in slightly higher AIDS mortality. We are unable to triangulate mortality estimates with empirical sources, so challenging to validate if this is more appropriate for Malawi. Changed Advanced options > HIV-related fertility reductions to the new default parameters (2024).


  • Uploaded a new file to resource Spectrum File in Malawi HIV Estimates 2025


  • Changed value of field sha256 of resource Spectrum File to ed0caf12aafbdf2bb947c01ac16357221f91d03f5fe08904c8eff421c8bc96f0 (previously 0952784cf23717559d73ae1563dd43e8832953fae734e41efac1257a9c0f11b4) in Malawi HIV Estimates 2025