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On May 8, 2023, 11:30:01 AM UTC, Gravatar Andreas Jahn:

  • Updated description of resource Spectrum File in Malawi HIV Estimates 2023 from

    Updated AIM > Program Data > PMTCT for 2013-2022 number of women on ART before and during pregnancy (3 groups) with DHA-MIS ANC cohort reports of women completing ANC in the reporting period (outcomes 6 months after starting ANC). Updated "Option B" postnatal maternal prophylaxis 2013-2022 with DHA-MIS quarterly ART program reports (reason for starting ART: breastfeeding), adjusted for double-counting of women who transferred out based on the 12-month ART cohort survival analysis for women started under Option B+. Updated ANC testing data 2013-2022 from DHA-MIS ANC cohort reports. All program data for 2022 now complete. Reduced all ANC ART and ANC testing data by 5% for presumed double-counting in routine ANC reports due to some women who attend more than one ANC clinic during the pregnancy. Updated AIM > Program Data > child treatment and Adult ART coverage forecast 2023-2030 to achieve a smooth scale-up from 2022 estimated coverage levels. Updated AIM > Program Data > Viral Suppression with updated stats from LIMS VL data export (12 Jan 2023) Collapsed the 3 region EPP subpopulations into one single national subpopulation and refitted EPP using Tim Brown's modified EPP module (the default AIM 6.24 did not converge with the default likelihood offset of 300). Re-fitted EPP with likelihood offset of 600 resulting in an excellent fit with survey and surveillance prevalence data. Re-fitted the sex IRR for time-varying HIV prevalence data without the 2015MDHS as age-specific and subnational prevalence trends were implausible and affected the fit to 2020MPHIA.
    to
    Updated AIM > Program Data > PMTCT for 2013-2022 number of women on ART before and during pregnancy (3 groups) with DHA-MIS ANC cohort reports of women completing ANC in the reporting period (outcomes 6 months after starting ANC). Updated "Option B" postnatal maternal prophylaxis 2013-2022 with DHA-MIS quarterly ART program reports (reason for starting ART: breastfeeding), adjusted for double-counting of women who transferred out based on the 12-month ART cohort survival analysis for women started under Option B+. Updated ANC testing data 2013-2022 from DHA-MIS ANC cohort reports. All program data for 2022 now complete. Reduced all ANC ART and ANC testing data by 5% for presumed double-counting in routine ANC reports due to some women who attend more than one ANC clinic during the pregnancy. Updated AIM > Program Data > child treatment and Adult ART coverage forecast 2023-2030 to achieve a smooth scale-up from 2022 estimated coverage levels. Updated AIM > Program Data > Viral Suppression with updated stats from LIMS VL data export (12 Jan 2023) Collapsed the 3 region EPP subpopulations into one single national subpopulation and refitted EPP using Tim Brown's modified EPP module (the default AIM 6.24 did not converge with the default likelihood offset of 300). Re-fitted EPP with likelihood offset of 600 resulting in an excellent fit with survey and surveillance prevalence data. Re-fitted the sex IRR for time-varying HIV prevalence data without the 2015MDHS as age-specific and subnational prevalence trends were implausible and affected the fit to 2020MPHIA. 2023-05-05: Imported re-fitted Shiny90 estimates after bug-fix applied by Jeff to remove excessively high estimates for aware for 2022-2030.


  • Changed value of field sha256 of resource Spectrum File to dc861c1710d7de9cc91165959a8fc30cd55611c5d811906bf622b145997190b4 (previously 88d9c7f9bd6941dacf19611f0783be52002318cd2ba728348cd2754fe834f47b) in Malawi HIV Estimates 2023